According To The variety The actors are about to have their say.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards may have a new name, but their importance in the Oscar race is as vital as ever. Now called the Actor Awards, nominations will be announced Jan. 7. With more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote — the largest voting body of any major awards show — the results often reflect populist tastes and broad mainstream appeal
This year’s eligibility window covers performances released between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, setting up what appears to be a competitive field across all categories.
Since the ensemble category was introduced in 1995, only four films — “Braveheart” (1995), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020) — have gone on to win best picture at the Academy Awards without earning a SAG ensemble nomination. Since the Academy expanded the best picture field in 2009, 61 of the 80 films nominated for SAG ensemble — a 76% success rate — have also received best picture nominations, underscoring the category’s value as a reliable Oscar indicator.
The ensemble race is as crowded as ever.
Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” is entering as an early frontrunner with a star-studded cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, and a lineup that fits the guild’s well-established preference for recognizable names. There’s also some history to possibly be made. At a projected seven nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson’s action epic is poised to become the most nominated movie in the history of SAG. And there’s still room for one more in case Regina Hall makes the cut in supporting actress alongside Teyana Taylor.
The list of the most nominated films in SAG history is currently a six-way tie with five each: “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), “Chicago” (2002), “Doubt” (2008), “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) and “Wicked” (2024). Of those, “Shakespeare,” “Chicago” and “Everything Everywhere” went on to win the SAG Award for best cast ensemble before clinching the Academy Award for best picture. “Doubt” took home best actress at SAG for Meryl Streep (but lost the Oscar) while “Banshees” and “Wicked” both went home empty-handed.
Obviously, SAG’s predictive strength extends to the film acting races as well. Since 2009, SAG’s film acting nominees have overlapped with the Academy Awards an average of 16 out of 20 slots, an 80% match rate. The strongest alignment came in 2009, the year of “The Hurt Locker,” when 19 of 20 SAG nominees went on to earn Oscar nominations. The weakest crossover occurred in 2021, the year of “CODA,” when the overlap dropped to 12 of 20.
Last year’s best actor winner, Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), continues his momentum and is back with his turn as table tennis prodigy Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme.” Notably, no film actor has ever won back-to-back SAG Awards. That could open the door for someone else to take the top spot. Nonetheless, DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan and Ethan Hawke are all expected to hear their names called. The organization has not been kind to non-English language performances, which is why a snub is projected for “The Secret Agent” star Wagner Moura. Despite emphatic praise from critics, the guild’s longstanding hesitation to nominate non-English language performances — see Sandra Hüller’s omission for “Anatomy of a Fall” — remains a barrier.
Still, there is some expected recognition for non-English storytelling with Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas all predicted to make their respective lineups for the Norwegian family drama “Sentimental Value.”
Actors who are mainstays at the ceremony such as Glenn Close (who has 10 individual nominations and could appear for “Wake Up Dead Man”) or William H. Macy, who could find his way to a nomination for his work in “Train Dreams,” which is predicted to land in the cast ensemble category.
On the television side, the drama series race will likely be dominated by streaming platforms, with Apple TV’s “Severance” and HBO Max’s “The White Lotus” expected to lead the pack alongside Netflix’s final season of “Stranger Things.” In comedy, FX’s “The Bear” and HBO’s “Hacks” remain fixtures, while Apple TV could break through with Seth Rogen’s “The Studio.”
Some of the other individual acting categories showcase a mix of established favorites and veterans — Jean Smart, Jeremy Allen White, Adam Scott — and relative newcomers like Glen Powell for “Chad Powers.”
The limited series categories are heavily weighted toward Netflix, which could claim as many as eight of the 10 nomination slots across both male and female actor categories, led by their Emmy-winning miniseries “Adolescence.”
Nominations will be announced Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. Final voting to determine the winners will take place from Jan. 14 through Feb. 27 at noon Pacific time. The 32nd annual Actor Awards, presented by SAG-AFTRA, will air live on Netflix on March 1.
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