Final Golden Globes Predictions: ‘Conclave,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Wicked’ Expected to Lead Nominations

By Clayton Davis

According To The variety Golden Globe voters have received their ballots and are starting to consider their choices for the best work in film and television. With 15 film categories — six of them split between drama and comedy/musical — the Globes are a bellwether for the Oscars. Under the HFPA, the awards were criticized for favoring star power over quality — evidenced by all the love they showered on the 2010 Johnny Depp-Angelina Jolie turkey “The Tourist.” But with a revamped voting body, the Globes have become more discerning, making more globally minded choices. The recognition last year of Alma Pöysti for the Finnish film “Fallen Leaves” signaled this evolutionThese categories are shaping up to be particularly cutthroat. Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” and Universal’s “Wicked” are leading the pack. Karla Sofía Gascón, poised to make history as the first transgender performer recognized in a film category, delivers a standout turn in “Emilia.” Meanwhile, Cynthia Erivo’s heartbreaking work as Elphaba in “Wicked” has generated considerable buzz. Then there’s Mikey Madison as a stripper entangled with a Russian oligarch’s kid in Neon’s “Anora.” Her ballsy, hilarious performance makes her a frontrunner at both the Globes and the Oscars.

The lead comedy actor race is less crowded. On the heels of his Cannes best actor win for Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Kinds of Kindness,” Jesse Plemons could score his first nom. But he’ll have to contend with Glen Powell’s shape-shifting performance in Richard Linklater’s “Hit Man,” as well as Ryan Reynolds’s motormouthed return as one-half of “Deadpool & Wolverine”’s costumed duo. Aside from those, the field is wide open.

Drama          

These categories overflow with star power. Best actor is stacked with heavyweights like Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”). Each appears in nearly every scene of their films while delivering wrenching performances.

On the actress side, Angelina Jolie is enjoying a career resurgence with her portrayal of a tormented diva in “Maria.” But she’ll have to contend with Tilda Swinton, devastating as a woman with a terminal illness in “The Room Next Door,” and Nicole Kidman, who is emotionally raw as an executive having an affair with an intern in “Babygirl.” With six nominees per category, there’s room for surprises — perhaps Pamela Anderson in “The Last Showgirl”?

Supporting Performances

The supporting actor race offers a sturdy slate, including Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), who commit cinematic grand larceny with their scene-stealing work. And don’t count out “Challengers” ace Josh O’Connor, who has been largely overlooked so far.

All eyes are on the supporting actress category, which could be one of the most A-list heavy in years. Music heavyweights like Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) should get the call, alongside Jennifer Lopez in Amazon MGM’s “Unstoppable.” And “Joker: Folie à Deux” may have bombed, yet Lady Gaga could hear her name when the nominations are announced on Dec. 9. Star power still goes a long way at the Globes.

The final Golden Globe predictions are below, including the television categories.

Director 

• Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
• Sean Baker, “Anora” (Neon)
• Edward Berger, “Conclave” (Focus Features)
• Jon M. Chu, “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
• Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” (A24)
• Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

Alternate: Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II”

Screenplay 

• “Anora” (Neon) — Sean Baker
• “The Brutalist” (A24) — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
• “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Peter Straughan
• “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jesse Eisenberg
• “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Pedro Almodóvar
• “The Substance” (Mubi) — Coralie Fargeat

Alternate: “Sing Sing”

Original Score        

• “The Brutalist” (A24) — Daniel Blumberg
• “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
• “Conclave” (Focus Features) — Volker Bertelmann
• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer
• “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) — Jon Batiste
• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) — Kris Bowers

Alternate: “The Room Next Door” 

Original Song 

• “Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
• “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
• “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
• “Folie à Deux” from “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
• “Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)

Alternate: “Not My Fault” from “Mean Girls”

TV Series (Drama)

• “Fallout” (Prime Video)
• “House of the Dragon” (HBO/Max)
• “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
• “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
• “Shōgun” (FX)
• “Squid Game” (Netflix)

Alternate: “The Diplomat”

TV Series (Comedy or Musical)

• “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
• “Agatha All Along” (Disney+)
• “Hacks” (HBO/Max)
• “A Man on the Inside” (Netflix)
• “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
• “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Alternate: “The Bear”